Virginia’s Population Growth Slows, Affecting K-12 School Enrollment

Virginia’s Population Growth Slows, Impacting School Enrollment

Virginia’s population growth is decelerating as the 2020s progress, with implications for the state’s educational institutions. Recent data from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service indicates a slower growth rate than seen in the past decade.

According to the center’s figures, the state’s K-12 school districts witnessed a decline in kindergarten enrollment, with around 10,000 fewer children entering kindergarten in 2025 compared to 2019.

Population Trends and Demographics

The Weldon Cooper Center, known for its nonpartisan data and research, provides insights that aid policymakers and officials in decision-making. Sol Baik, a senior researcher from the center, highlights several key points regarding Virginia’s demographic trends:

Virginia’s annual population growth rate has dropped to 0.5% this decade, down from 0.76% in the previous decade.

The natural increase in population, defined as births minus deaths, has contributed less to growth due to low birth rates and an aging population. Over two-thirds of Virginia’s growth since 2020 has resulted from domestic and international migration.

More than 80% of Virginia’s population growth in the last five years occurred in the Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Virginia Beach metro areas, with the Winchester, Richmond, and Harrisonburg areas experiencing the fastest growth. Charlottesville added over 10,000 residents, surpassing the average growth rate across the state’s metropolitan regions.

Non-metropolitan and non-micropolitan counties experienced modest growth. The Northern Neck and Eastern Shore regions saw population gains, while Southside and Southwest Virginia counties faced slight declines.

School Enrollment Declines

The Cooper Center’s research, benchmarked against the 2020 U.S. Census, forecasts further declines in Virginia’s K-12 enrollment. The trend of shrinking elementary school classes began before the pandemic, driven by a decline in birth rates since 2008, according to Zach Jackson, the school’s enrollment projections manager.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, statewide public K-12 enrollment saw a nearly 40,000 student drop in fall 2020. Although there was a small rebound in enrollment during 2021 and 2022, figures stabilized at around 1.22 million students through 2024.

Virginia experienced an unexpected 1.2% enrollment drop (around 15,000 students) in fall 2025, marking the largest single-year decline since the pandemic. This exceeded the center’s 2024 projection of a 0.5% decrease (approximately 6,000 students). Jackson noted, “This gap suggests that factors beyond the long-term decline in births contributed to the recent drop; however, we’re unable to confidently identify these drivers at this time.”

The state anticipates a 3% decrease, or 36,827 students, in K-12 enrollment over the next five years, with urban and suburban divisions most affected.

Counties like Loudoun, Fairfax, and Arlington could see a 4.7% to 6.6% decrease in enrollment over five years, representing a collective loss of over 11,000 students.