Improved Weather Forecasting Could Reduce Heat-Related Deaths by 2100

As climate change intensifies the frequency of extreme weather events, the importance of accurate weather forecasts becomes increasingly critical. Such forecasts can provide timely warnings, allowing individuals to better prepare for potential dangers and make informed decisions to ensure their safety. In this context, a recent study explores the potential of enhanced weather forecasting to mitigate the mortality risks associated with rising temperatures due to climate change.

Derek Lemoine, a professor of economics at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management, collaborated with researchers from Columbia University, the University of Oregon, and Princeton University to examine this issue. Their findings, published in the journal PNAS, indicate that improving short-term temperature forecasts in line with technological advancements could decrease heat-related deaths in the U.S. by 18% to 25% by the year 2100.

“That could offset the extra heat-related deaths caused by climate change,” Lemoine stated, pointing to the potential benefits of such improvements. “To be clear, we would still rather not experience the climate change – but at least we can find ways to potentially cancel out the increased mortality. While extreme cold is very deadly, people primarily use weather forecasts to avoid the heat. Considering climate change will increase the frequency of extreme heat, accurate weather forecasts will become more valuable.”

The research team utilized day-ahead forecasts from the National Weather Service and historical weather data from Oregon State University’s PRISM Climate Group, which aggregates numerous observations from weather stations nationwide. This data was then cross-referenced with county-level mortality records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to identify the impact of forecast accuracy on mortality rates.

The study highlighted that inaccuracies in predicting high temperatures pose the greatest risk. More precise forecasts could significantly reduce deaths during extreme heat events. The team also investigated how future technological advancements might enhance the efficacy of weather forecasting and its potential to save lives.

In early 2025, the researchers surveyed professional meteorologists to assess anticipated advancements in forecasting technology. The survey covered various aspects, including artificial intelligence, climate change impacts, and potential changes in resources and staffing. Based on these insights, they developed three forecasting scenarios: one reflecting meteorologists’ most optimistic expectations, another based on the most pessimistic outlook, and a third where weather predictions achieve perfect accuracy.

Using historical climate and mortality data, the researchers evaluated each scenario against different climate conditions: a no-climate-change scenario with stable temperatures, a moderate warming of 1.6 degrees Celsius, a more severe increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius, and an extreme scenario with a rise of 3.8 degrees Celsius across the contiguous United States.

The study found that, depending on technological advancements and climate change severity, enhanced forecasts could substantially offset the projected increase in heat-related fatalities. Conversely, if forecasting quality diminishes due to reduced investment, it could exacerbate the mortality risk associated with high temperatures.

“Economists aren’t valuing life itself,” explained Lemoine. “We’re valuing reductions in the risk of dying. The government conducts a cost‑benefit analysis of new policies, and a key part of that involves assigning a standardized value to any lives saved. That value is so large that it often dominates the analysis. In this case, the number of lives saved by improved forecasting – and the likelihood that this benefit will grow as climate change increases risks – translates into a very high economic value. Once you apply that value to the number of lives saved through better forecasting, you end up with a substantial benefit to investing in weather forecasting.”